As European decarbonisation targets are proving more difficult to achieve, the region’s gas demand is showing resilience in the near term. Current trends indicate that European gas consumption will remain relatively stable through the end of this decade, with demand projected to reach approximately 454 bcm by 2030. This stability reflects a slower-than-anticipated electrification of non-power sectors and highlights increasing headwinds for meeting Europe’s 2030 decarbonisation targets. 

However, the long-term outlook still points to a gradual decline. Beyond 2030, more stringent decarbonisation policies and technological advancements are expected to take effect, initiating a downward trend in gas consumption. Nevertheless, natural gas will continue to play a significant role in Europe’s energy mix for decades to come. Our analysis suggests that even by 2050, European gas demand will still stand at a substantial 241 bcm. As we delve deeper into these issues, it becomes clear that the European gas market is entering a new era. While the immediate future suggests stability, the longer-term outlook points to significant changes that will reshape the industry. Understanding these trends and their implications will be crucial for anyone operating in or observing the European energy sector.